What can be accomplished in the near term is at least the extension of the Sangley Runway and having it share the MNL airport code with NAIA. A provisional terminal can take spillover traffic until such time as all the traffic will be relocated to Sangley. This was also technically the original plan with Clark, minus the airport code part.
Arianespace, you mentioned that the layout will be like LAX, and that two runways would be constructed first. The question is, which two runways would likely be the first ones to be constructed? It seems likely that the two southern runways could be built first, as opposed to having one northern runway and one southern runway, though the latter would be more efficient in the near term. Your thoughts?
The next president cannot even see this project completed during his term by the scale of it.
In the GCR plan that JICA submitted to NEDA, the proposal includes development of Sangley airport as NAIA's third runway, before and during construction phase of the mega airport. But it will still carry its own code in the interim. Take note that it is considered as one of the proposals. It could very well change or altered to suit demand or budgetary allocations. Take note also that expressway connection is not even part of it just yet.
So the airport could very well look like KIX, as I said earlier, connected by CAVITEX extension to Sangley where all domestic operations is scheduled to be transferred between 2020-2025.
If it pleases your ear, this is also the subway route that runs from Cavite all the way to Roxas boulevard. This early, Cebu Pacific has already manifested intent to relocate all operations there, including international. That will leave NAIA 20 mppa less. If it goes according to plan, (take note, intended for domestic) 5J will become the first operator in the new airport.
Now, to the most interesting part, The existing runway will become a taxiway for the new 3.5k runway dubbed as 7R/25L eventually, that will be constructed 200 meters further out. And then terminal one construction on the vicinity of Sangley tarmac with capacity of about 25-30 million comprising approximately 30-40 gates together with associated airside development, and access road to expressway and/or causeway construction. With the growth of Cebu Pacific, that could potentially be full by 2020.
In the original plan, terminal 1 has capacity only of 5mppa. In 2014, NAIA already handles 18 mppa domestic passengers. Even 5J domestic already handles more than that. From here you can already see why the proposal is flawed. That's why JICA made supplement to this with 26 million.
And then there is this construction of one mega terminal to be completed in 2025 that is expected to accommodate a projected 55 million passengers per annum (mppa) with 400,000 aircraft movements. If Terminal 1 pushes through with 25-30 mppa capacity, we could be seeing another 30 mppa capacity Terminal 2 supporting the projected 55 mppa traffic, and then another 30 mppa capacity terminal 3 by 2032.
Now, if DOTC decides to construct both terminal 2 and 3 (which would now become 1 and 2 or just could be merged as Terminal 1) simultaneously, that will most likely have 60 mppa throughput, with design feature similar to PVG's newest terminal opening on the same time frame. Meanwhile, the Sangley Terminal will be designated as the new T3 that should be open in 2032. Take note that this undertaking is more expensive than the first one.
Moving along, reclamation will continue all the way north until it will become 2,400 hectares reclaimed land area. This would be a rectangular area of 6-km long and 4-km wide.
By the way, the subway train is routed on the peninsula farther west and its not included in the plan because it is a separate funded project also by JICA. The Sangley Terminal was also not included because it is supposed to be a GOP project which is integrated in this plan described as gray areas. Just to be clear everyone.
As for the rest of your question, you can marvel the view and answer it yourself.
I can't imagine the amount of reclamation to be undertaken on this project and I just noticed Sangley runway is deviated 1 degree from NAIA so I don't think the existing will be upgraded and reused, besides the fact that the bearing capacity of the current field maybe inferior. Its hard to say until we see a concept plan at least but I suppose the whole built-up military installation will be cleared and graded and this portion of the runway will most likely end up as servicing complex. When we did Cebu south reclamation project, it took two years of detailed engineering, JICA funded and worked with Japanese consultants for the duration of 2 years, and this is just typical reclamation with causeway as the first phase followed by the infill. An airport of this magnitude in reclaimed land could drag for 5 years just on horizontal works for the planning to detailed engineering alone. By the time contract documents are completed and tendered, inflation would probably have caught up. So will the government counterpart cough up? In my opinion a land option can be more fastracked but with the metro area sprawling fast, its equally challenging.
Now you see. But please do remember that these are plans only at this time, and until finally approved and signed, are pure speculations only. That is concept plans. But you could already see how generally it would look like.
I couldn't have asked for more, this is exactly what's in my mind from a planning point of view. Its very efficient, linear terminal feeding perpendicular to the parallell runways. This way the PTB expansions can simply go progressively without disrupting runway activity. The taxiway exits are all simplified as well. The one for Vietnam doesn't look very effective to me. Lastly this is the mother of all reclamations in the country. Whoever Japanese consultant that will be awarded will be secure for another 5 years and for sure a lot of local counterparts are courting them. Now I don't blame Solblanc for floating the idea of the container terminal because the way I see it, the naval piers at Sangley is where a deep port like Subic should be; removed the entire base and whalah!, we've got a perfect air, sea commerce hub not seen by the likes of Singapore and HK. The biggest hiccup now?, ah well, government - congress for the GAA portion. I hope this doesn't drain the resources of other Philippine airport development projects because as we all know, there's a lot in despair. Yes, I'm enjoying this concept plan - saved for future referrence!
The Japs faces look subdued, same look when we worked with Jica consultants on the reclamation project. Concerns with shore protection brings to mind!, settling follows next! Long way to go but occular inpection is agood sign!
Maybe the Dutch can help with their land reclamation expertise?
2 of the best land reclaimers working together should make it faster.
Just don't let the Mainland Chinese companies near it, they might claim it as their own!
The updated New NAIA Project revised by JICA is now ready for approval by DU30 administration. The approval by NEDA this year sets the stone rolling for the the new airport project in Sangley to commence by 2017. Hope it goes smooth sailing from there.